Ontario projects 3,000 to 15,000 COVID-19 deaths with health measures in place

On April 3, 2020, Ontario’s top health officials provided early COVID-19 projection numbers that forecasts between 3,000 to 15,000 people in the province will die from COVID-19 with health measures that are already in place.Without any public health measures, the number of deaths is projected to go up to 100,000 deaths.

“That is not what we believe will happen,” Dr. Peter Donnelly said at Queen’s Park on Thursday. “That is why weneeded to do all the things we have done thus far and why we need to continue.”

“If we all do a good job and stick to the measures, we can get an end result between 3,000 and 15,000 (deaths).”

The modelling forecasts 80,000 COVID-19 cases and under 1,600 potential COVID-19 deaths by the end of April if the current health and safety measures are still in place. 

Today’s press conference at Queen’s Park, Toronto included President and CEO of Public Health Ontario Dr. Peter Donnelly, President and CEO of Ontario Health Matthew Anderson, and the Dean of Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Adelstein Brown, revealed the projected numbers regarding the ongoing pandemic. 

It was mentioned that the projections would have been worsened to 300,000 cases and upwards of 6,000 deaths if there were no health measures or government interventions in place. 

“Over the full two-year course of the pandemic, had we done nothing, Ontario may have suffered 100,000 deaths,” said Dr. Peter Donnelly.

“Thankfully that is not the position that we are in. Because of the very detailed actions… which have been taken in response to the emerging science, we believe that if we can do all that we can, we can get a much better end result for the province.”

Dr. Peter Donnelly reiterated that while the projections range widely, it is due to the current circumstances. With no vaccines or specific treatment readily available for the time being the higher end of the projection seems logical, said the CEO of Public Health Ontario. 

Among all three public health officials, the message was clear, it is more important than ever to practice physical and social distancing and follow the advice and measures implemented by the government in efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Meanwhile, the Canadian troops are ordered to be ready to deploy across the country to help support civil authorities deal with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Currently, as of April 3, 2020 at 7:00 pm, there are 12,549 confirmed cases of COVID-19 patients in Canada. 2,290 of which have recovered and up to 187 deaths due to related COVID-19 complications.

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